b)       the QG approximation

1. the QG equations in pressure coordinates

2. the QG vorticity equation

c)       QG prediction

1. height tendency equation

2. QG potential vorticity equation

3. invertibility principle

4. vertical coupling through potential vorticity

d)       Diagnosis of QG vertical motion

1. the omega equation

2. Q vectors

3. ageostrophic circulation

4. jet streaks

e)       Conceptual model of a baroclinic disturbance from a QG perspective

1. QG "forcings" in a developing midlatitude cyclone

2. lifecycle of a classical midlatitude cyclone

3. observed trajectories, cloud and precipitation patterns

4. coastal cyclogenesis

5. lee cyclogenesis

6. polar cyclogenesis

2) IPV thinking (Bluestein, Chapter 1.9)

a)       Definitions, approximations, and typical distributions (1.9.1-1.9.2)

b)       Surface PVAs and upper-level PVAs (1.9.3-1.9.4)

c)       Large-scale vertical motion and baroclinic instability from an IPV perspective (1.9.5)

d)       Motion of PVAs aloft and near the surface (1.9.7-1.9.8)

e)       Formation of PVAs aloft and near the surface (1.9.10-1.9.11)

f)        Applications: PV in bombs and lee cyclones

3) Mesoscale circulations (Holton, Chapter 9)

a) mesoscale energy sources

b) geostrophic adjustment (Holton, Chapter 7.6)

c) semi-geostrophic theory

d) fronts and frontogenesis

1. 2D frontogenesis

2. frontogenesis by horizontal flow

3. cross-frontal circulation: frontogenetic forcing

4. cold fronts aloft

5. density current dynamics (solitary waves, undular bores)

e) symmetric instability

f) orographically modified flow

1. cold-air damming

2. barrier jet

3. coastally-trapped wind reversals

4. flow over isolated ridges

5. downslope windstorms

4) Cumulus Convection  (Holton, Chapter 9.5, and Bluestein, Chapter 3.4)

a)       Cumulus dynamics

b)       Effect of buoyancy and shear on convective storm structure

c)       Anticipating convective storm structure: CAPE and shear

d)       Supercell dynamics

e)       Dynamics of mesoscale convective systems

1. MCS survey

2. cold pool/ shear interactions

3. synergy between squall line and trailing stratiform region

4. MCS rotation (MCVs, bow echoes)

f)        (optional) tornado structure and dynamics, supercell tornadogenesis

5) (optional) Synoptic-scale forcing in the Tropics (Holton, Chapter 11)

a)       observations of large-scale tropical circulations

b)       scale analysis for tropical circulations: importance of latent heating

c)       equatorial wave theory: (a)symmetric coherent tropical modes

d)       steady forced equatorial motions

e)       tropical cyclones

1. genesis: CISK and air-sea interaction theory

2. intensification, environmental influences

3. anatomy of a mature hurricane (IPV perspective)

4. hurricane track forecasting

Grading scale

Assessment

Project 1: COMET

There are many COMET case studies (see http://www.comet.ucar.edu/resources/cases/index.htm for details). Check with Dr. Oolman about availability here, we should have most except the most recent ones. We have at least the ones listed below. But if you have a ‘favorite case’, make it yours (allow 2 weeks for ordering if we don’t have it here).

Timeline:

1. by 13 Jan: pick a case and date (one case per student, first come first serve), and write a one-page summary of why you want to analyze the case, and what specifically you plan to focus on. Note that some COMET case studies focus on aspects that we will not have covered yet in class; for instance, tornadic storms are addressed towards the end of this semester.

2. Present your case study during the 2nd hour of class (dates TBA, all before spring break).

Present an oral presentation of at most 30 minutes. You should have your presentation as a website, viewed in IDV, with links to the bundles you prepared. No powerpoint! Be prepared for difficult questions both during and afterwards, for which you may need to make extra charts. Your presentation should acquaint us with the development and evolution of the weather phenomenon in question. Don’t give a general synoptic weather briefing, but rather, focus on the topic of your case. For instance, for case #19, try to put yourself in the shoes of an Oklahoma forecaster (trained at graduate level). For case #5, assess the occurrence of Lake Effect snow, and then try to answer why. The challenge forecasters always face is what that synoptic picture will do locally to the weather.

Try to apply the knowledge gained in this class, and in previous classes (dynamic meteorology, weather analysis ...) to shed insight into the weather event. Make every attempt possible to understand the dynamical processes leading to the observed structure and evolution.

Project 2: ETA run

1.    Objectives:

• to become acquainted with NWP processes by running your own model and varying physics packages, boundary conditions, resolution, domain, etc

• to better understand weather phenomena at the local level, down to the mesoscale

• to use some non-traditional diagnostics to analyze your case

2.    Method:

To run your own ETA simulation, read the guidelines at http://www.comet.ucar.edu/strc/model/. The model binary code is installed on bat. Usage details are here. This is the main class project after spring break.

3.    Topic:

You can choose your own weather of interest. For instance a case of lee cyclogenesis, or cyclogenesis along the Gulf or East Coasts. A snow storm in New England or in the Pacific Northwest. Or a focus on frontogenesis. Or convective initiation in the Plains. Or the sea breeze circulation in Florida. The model can be initialized using real-time data, or a COMET case study. I recommend that you try a nested grid, or evaluate different convective parameterizations, or assess the effect of the hydrostatic balance assumption.

A note on Academic Integrity and Plagiarism

Academic integrity is the pursuit of scholarly activity in an open, honest and responsible manner. Academic integrity is a basic guiding principle for all academic activity at the University of Wyoming, and all students are expected to act in accordance with this principle. Consistent with this expectation, all students should act with personal integrity, respect other students' dignity, rights and property, and help create and maintain an environment in which all can succeed through the fruits of their efforts.

Academic integrity includes a commitment not to engage in or tolerate acts of plagiarism, falsification, misrepresentation, or deception. Such acts of dishonesty violate the fundamental ethical principles of the academic community and compromise the worth of work completed by others.

Evidence of plagiarism may result in expulsion from the course (with an F grade) as well as dismissal or suspension from the University of Wyoming (Unireg #030-1970).