ATSC 5160                 Final                22%                due: no later than Fri 16 May 2002, 9 am

Open book – take home

 

Use any resource you like, including the textbook, the peer-reviewed literature, COMET/METED material such as “Anticipating Convective Storm Structure” (on the web or CD). But your answers must represent an individual effort.

 

1. (11%) We have not studied microburst dynamics, but we use the concept to test your understanding of convective dynamics in general. A microburst is a small downburst that develops at or above the base of a cumulonimbus cloud. The downward acceleration results from the negative buoyancy that the microburst develops on its way towards the ground. I saw two spectacular ones from the air in IHOP. The air was at about 100F, the convective BL very deep, and the air dry. One produced a deep dust bowl spreading out radially [our ex-navy aircraft carrier pilot Wayne Sand banked about 90 degrees to avoid it], the other produced a beautiful gustnado. Anyway, the objective of this exercise is to calculate the buoyancy and vertical motion of a parcel of air in a microburst, as a function of height below cloud base. Assume the following:

a)      the ground is at 1000 mb, where the ambient temperature is 35ºC

b)      the cloud base is at 3 km above the ground

c)      at cloud base the parcel has zero vertical velocity, the same virtual temperature as the environment, but its negative buoyancy is due to 2 g kg-1 of hydrometeors

d)      the descending parcel will continue to be saturated until it has consumed (evaporated) all its hydrometeors

e)      the environment below cloud-base is well-mixed, i.e. it has a constant mixing ratio and a constant potential temperature

Now do the following:

a)      (graphical) Use the parcel technique to plot the variation of temperature and dewpoint, both for the parcel and the environment, between cloud base and the ground, on a skew T log p (there are some blank ones in the lab). Also highlight the parcel’s ‘negative area’. (2%)

b)      (write-up) Discuss the dynamics of this microburst: what accelerates it downward, what retards this acceleration? When the microburst is about to hit the ground, its vertical velocity will rapidly decrease, because of continuity. What is the real force causing this deceleration? (4%)

c)      (numerical) Plot, as a function of height between cloud base and ground, both the buoyancy (m s-2) and the vertical velocity (m s-1). To do this, you need to use the vertical equation of motion. Ignore all terms on the right hand side of this equation, except the buoyancy. In the buoyancy term itself you can ignore one term: the perturbation pressure term. [hint: as a first order approximation, you can assume a parcel lapse rate of say 6 K/km] (5%)

d)      (extra credit) repeat the above, but do it correctly, i.e. calculate the moist adiabatic lapse rate, and keep track of the water vapor and the remaining liquid water, at every step in a finite difference approach (2%)

 

2. Courtesy of Cory, I showed an example in class of a spreading arc of clouds in northern Georgia. The visible satellite imagery and surface observations can be viewed again in the attached file (final_03.ppt). Discuss the dynamics of the observed development and spreading of this cloud arc over (4%).

3. Choose one of the following two. (7%)

 

Either Question 3.1 on p. 577 in the textbook, Bluestein 1993 (you must limit your answer to 2 pages typed, font size 12, or else 3 p handwritten)

 

Or else this question: A tornadic storm occurred near Melbourne Australia on 3 Oct 2001 (http://www.stormchasers.au.com/3_10_01.htm). The storm was observed to move at 12 m/s towards 025 (NNW).

a)      Go to Dr. Oolman’s website (weather.uwyo.edu) to retrieve the sounding, and the hodograph, at YMML (Melbourne) at 12 Z on 3 Oct 200.1 (1%)

b)      On the hodograph, roughly draw the mean shear vector between 1000-400 mb (assume this to be 0-6 km elevation – Larry’s hodographs don’t show km but mb for altitude). Consider both magnitude and orientation. Draw the vector in units of m/s per 6 km. (1%)

c)      Does the 0-6 km hodograph turn clockwise, counterclockwise, or is the shear straight? (1%)

d)      Locate the 0-6 km mean wind on the hodograph (you can eyeball this) (1%)

e)      Locate both the left-moving and right-moving storm motions on the hodograph [hint: use the ID method discussed in class]. (1%)

f)       Which one is more likely to survive after the split, or do they have equal survival chances? Assume that no shallow boundaries are present and the environment is horizontally uniform. Explain. (1%)

g)      Climatologically, what type of supercell is more likely in southeastern Australia, rightmovers or leftmovers? Explain. [hint: consider large-scale thermal advection and increase of CAPE] (1%)